Chaitra Krushna paksha 5, Kaliyug Varsh 5117
The misinterpretation of data in the form of interpolation and extrapolation of population calculated by officials of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics can’t be defended by even best of our secular sophists, economists and demographers
What happens when Islamism is married to western-style institutions in a western-style state with a western-style Constitution? Perhaps we get a failed Islamic state like Pakistan. Certainly, we also get a steady ethnic cleansing of all minorities. This is a curious question we plan to explore in this article, but instead of Pakistan, we shall look at our other Islamic neighbour, Bangladesh. Let us take for example the Census Bureau of Bangladesh and its manipulative approach to this gruesome fact of the ethnic cleansing of Hindus, Buddhists and tribals.
An institution overseeing census, it is a western legacy in fact, which works on population data in a supposedly empirical, west-inspired, objective manner, supposedly without any fundamentalist or religious baggage. However, this very structure is utilised by Bangladeshi authorities to perpetrate falsehood in a manner reminiscent of the joke that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics.
But before we go any further into this debate, let us also point out that in one respect the census of India and Bangladesh show a similar trend: both the countries record a drop in the population of Hindus. Further, both the countries are withholding the final religion-wise data. The reason for not disclosing the religious classification of census 2011 was also the same — the decreasing share of non-Muslim population in both the countries (Bangladesh, though provides the religious population data prior to 2011, has not done the same for the 2011 census). We, however, do not want to speculate in this article whether India is the next Islamic state in making by virtue of mirroring the Bangladeshi practice at least in one respect.
Bangladesh is a Muslim majority country, while India is not, at least not for the time being. However, the reason for not revealing the census data has been the same for both the countries. India didn’t want to release religious data for 2011 census in order to conceal the fact that Muslim population share has grown in almost all the States and in some States their population has increased in an unprecedented manner. Bangladesh also did not reveal its religious population data because the Muslim population share has increased and the population share of other religious communities has decreased heavily. When juxtaposed, India and Bangladesh in this respect constitute a surreal joke. But seriously, it raises these concerns.
One, why the population share of non-Muslims is falling throughout the subcontinent irrespective of their minority and majority status in different countries? Two, if the population of non-Muslims is falling, then why the respective governments are shying away from revealing the census data on religious basis?
First of all, Bangladesh has not just been shying away from revealing the data of religious population, but has also been trying to manipulate the same. The tampering with the religious data has been a two-stage process deliberated at the behest of the Government of Bangladesh. Stage one tampering is performed at the time of collection and compilation of data. It can be in the form of under and over-collection of data to suit the purpose of the data collection. The under-collection of data for Muslims and over-collection of data belonging to non-Muslims constitute precisely one of the strategies to mollify on papers the sharp change in demography. The stage two tampering is related to presentation of the collected data and statistical devices applied on the collected data to predict the trend.
It would always be difficult, especially for outsiders, to detect the systematic mischief carried out by the persons in charge of the system at the time of data collection. Without a ground-level sting operation, it will be impossible to pinpoint how far Bangladesh has acquired the expertise in the art of tampering data at collection stage. But stage two tampering can be caught and detected with very little exertion on our intelligence. The misinterpretation of data in the form of interpolation and extrapolation of population calculated by officials of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) cannot be defended by even best of our secular sophists, economists and demographers (and this stage two tampering allows us to speculate that stage one tampering must also have occurred in Bangladesh census). Let us elaborate.
A mere look at official website of census of Bangladesh may tell the whole story of playing truant with data without taking into account the clear trend emerging from the census. The data on BBS website shows two anomalies which are pertinent as we try to understand this data fraud. First, the Muslim population share takes a sudden huge jump once in every ten years and that is precisely on the year of census; otherwise in the remaining 9 years annual growth of non-Muslim population is mostly higher than Muslim population. It is clear from the table that in the years 1998, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008, either the population growth of non-Muslims was higher than Muslims, or their growth rates were equal. This attains a hammering effect. By repeated show of a supposed equanimity in population shares, it ameliorates our shock at the sudden jump in Muslim population share in the crucial census year.
Now, when we look at the decadal growth rate, the Muslim population growth is 2 to 4 times higher than the non-Muslim decadal growth. But, that is obviously contradictory. If annual growth rates are not showing higher Muslim growth, then how can decadal growth rate show 2-4 times higher decadal population growth of the Muslims? Statistically speaking, any one of these two has to be incorrect. Even if we trust the data collection of BBS, then obvious doubt is cast on the problem of annual estimates of population share shown by BBS website.
This is not a stray phenomenon of one year or of one decade. The contradiction between annual growth and decadal growth is clear in the data from all the decades. Clearly, this data fraud is being done because the demographers on the payroll of the Bangladesh Government are deliberately not taking into account the actual growth of Muslims and non-Muslims which can be derived from the census, while projecting the population for the years other than the census year. This is a deliberate attempt to give an impression to the world that population of non-Muslims is not shrinking in Bangladesh. Further, they also create an impression that notwithstanding the Muslim big bang of every census year, things magically return to normalcy during all non-census years.
BBS, an Islamic state apparatus per excellence, is making a joke of itself by doing this. Some population results of it are outright senseless without any justification whatsoever. For instance, it shows positive growth in the absolute population of non-Muslims for 6 years while negative growth for remaining 4 years. This brings out the problem with population projections, as population growth can be negative only in the case when large number of people either migrate or get killed, especially in a poor country like Bangladesh (rich countries usually have some other factors for negative population rate).
In this way BBS falls in its own trap; if its projections are taken seriously it won’t be able to answer why the population of non-Muslims fell by 17.89 per cent per annum in 2001 within a period of one year. So, this is what an Islamic state does. It brings out the “best” from both worlds: Islamist tenet to decimate the unbeliever, and positivist imperative to look neatly scientific on paper. Together they constitute this fraudulent hybridity which many observers will be compelled to call the supreme characteristic of a failed state.
Source : Daily Pioneer